How far will the Transition go in Europe?

PtX Lab Paper | 11/2025 | Topic: Aviation | 12 Pages

The PtX Lab Paper How far will the Transition go in Europe? Two years of ReFuelEU Aviation provides a concise, critical overview of two years of ReFuelEU Aviation and analyses how effectively the regulation is actually steering European aviation towards defossilisation.

It explains the key instruments – in particular the increasing SAF and PtL blending quotas, refuelling and reporting obligations, and penalty mechanisms – and shows where these are already having an effect and where they are reaching their limits.

One focus is on the question of why, despite clear quotas, cost parity and sufficient production capacities for SAF, especially eSAF, remain uncertain in the long term. The paper describes key risks for pioneering companies, the market structure (including oligopoly risks) and the limited appeal of voluntary over-compliance.

In conclusion, it becomes clear that the regulation is an important starting point, but is not sufficient on its own to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. For policymakers and experts, the paper provides a sound basis for understanding the necessary accompanying support and market mechanisms.